Measuring hunger: prevalence vs number

June 5, 2015

 

In developing countries, Using SOFI 12 numbers NUMERICAL MEASUREMENT:In 1990-02: 980 million hungry; in 2010-12: 852 million hungry= 128 millionDIFFERENCE = 13% decline (compared to original 50% goal)RESULT: We are only about a quarter( 26%) of our way to meeting the goal of halving hunger. Or we have three-quarters left to go.PREVALENCE MEASUREMENT:In 1990-02: 23.2%; 2010-12: 14.9 % =8.3%DIFFERENCE = 36% decline (compared to 50% goal)RESULT: We are almost 3/4rds (72%) of the way to meeting the MDG goal.from SOURCES FACT SHEET ON WORLD HUNGER 7.2013“we’re almost three-quarters of the way there”: Explanation of calculation: The Millennium Development Goals involve only developing countries. In 1990-02 the prevalence of under-nourishment in developing countries was 23.2%. In 2010-2012 it was 14.9%; for a decline of 8.3 percentage points. Reaching the goal of reducing hunger by half requires reaching a prevalence of 11.6% (0.5 x 23.2% = 11.6%). So we are almost three quarters (8.3/11.6) of our way to meeting the hunger target in MDG#1. Data used for this calculation: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012, Rome: 2012, 9, http://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/en/.“we’re only a quarter of the way there”: Explanation of calculation: In 1990-02 there were 980 million hungry people in developing countries; and in 2010-12 there were 852 million. The reduction: 128 million people. If the MDG goal were based on cutting the number of hungry people in developing by half, reaching the goal would mean a decline to 490 million (0.5 x 980 million = 490 million). Therefore, the 128 million decline means we are 26.1% (128/490 million), or only one quarter, of our way to the goal. Ibid., 9, Fig.1, http://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/en/

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